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新产业(300832):出海持续增长 国内业务修复可期

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, impacted by domestic market conditions and pricing pressures from centralized procurement policies [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 2.185 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.18% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 771 million yuan, down 14.62% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 726 million yuan, a decline of 16.33% [1]. - For Q2 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 1.060 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.88% year-on-year, with net profit of 334 million yuan, down 30.06% [1]. Group 2: Domestic Market Dynamics - Domestic revenue from reagent products decreased by 19%, while instrument revenue increased by 18%, leading to a total main business income of 1.229 billion yuan, down 13% year-on-year [1]. - The company installed 774 units of fully automated chemiluminescence immunoassay analyzers in domestic markets, with large machines accounting for 75% of installations [1]. - The number of tertiary hospitals served reached 1,835, with a coverage rate of 63.51% for top-tier hospitals [1]. Group 3: International Market Performance - The company achieved main business revenue of 952 million yuan in overseas markets, a year-on-year increase of 20%, with reagent business revenue growing by 37% [2]. - A total of 1,971 units of fully automated chemiluminescence immunoassay analyzers were sold in overseas markets, with mid-to-large size instrument sales accounting for 77%, an increase of 12 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company is focusing on promoting high-speed machines X8 and X6 in large terminals, which is expected to provide a solid foundation for long-term growth [2]. Group 4: Market Recovery and Future Outlook - Domestic market conditions are expected to improve, with a recovery in both volume and price factors anticipated by Q3 2025 [3]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the gradual recovery of key testing projects starting from July 2025, which will support diagnostic decision-making [3]. Group 5: Profitability and Cost Management - The overall gross margin for the first half of 2025 decreased by 4.17 percentage points to 68.44%, primarily due to product price reductions [4]. - The sales expense ratio, management expense ratio, R&D expense ratio, and financial expense ratio were 16.93%, 2.71%, 10.86%, and -1.33%, with respective year-on-year changes of +1.82 percentage points, +0.11 percentage points, +1.62 percentage points, and -0.76 percentage points [4]. - In Q2 2025, the gross margin was 68.89%, with a net profit margin of 31.47%, reflecting a decrease of 8.62 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Group 6: Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 4.898 billion yuan, 5.672 billion yuan, and 6.358 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.99%, 15.80%, and 12.09% respectively [5]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 1.840 billion yuan, 2.209 billion yuan, and 2.529 billion yuan, with growth rates of 0.62%, 20.05%, and 14.52% respectively [5]. - The expected EPS for 2025-2027 are 2.34 yuan, 2.81 yuan, and 3.22 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 28, 23, and 20 times [5].