新里程(002219)半年报点评：医保和集采政策影响趋于平稳 业绩筑底下半年增速有望改善

Core Insights - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with total revenue at 1.588 billion yuan (-20.63% YoY) and net profit attributable to shareholders at 7 million yuan (-88.25% YoY) [1] - The medical services segment generated revenue of 1.378 billion yuan (-14.84% YoY) with a gross margin of 26.52% (+1.20 percentage points), while the pharmaceutical and medical products segment saw revenue of 208 million yuan (-44.66% YoY) with a gross margin of 40.67% (-4.49 percentage points) [1] - The company anticipates improved growth in the second half of 2025 due to lower performance baselines from core hospitals in the second half of 2024 [2] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, inpatient business experienced a decline, with inpatient volume down approximately 9% YoY and average inpatient costs decreasing about 12% [1] - The company’s hospitals maintained stable outpatient volumes and average outpatient costs compared to the previous year [1] - Revenue from specific hospitals showed variability, with Wafangdian Third Hospital's revenue declining by 24% in 1H2025, while Lankao First Hospital and Siyang People's Hospital also reported declines [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on enhancing market share, effective revenue, and operational efficiency through strategic restructuring, level creation, and scale expansion [2] - Recent upgrades in hospital classifications include Siyang Hospital becoming a tertiary general hospital, with ongoing efforts to elevate other hospitals to higher classifications [2] - The subsidiary Du Yi Wei experienced a significant revenue drop of 50% in 1H2025, attributed to cautious procurement ahead of centralized procurement policies, but is expected to recover in the latter half of 2025 [3] Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting revenues of 3.5 billion yuan, 3.9 billion yuan, and 4.5 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 92 million yuan, 117 million yuan, and 180 million yuan [3] - The company maintains a "buy" rating, driven by a dual strategy of "medical + pharmaceutical" and ongoing innovations in "medical + insurance" and "elderly care + insurance" [3]