8月：上下游呈分化 指数小幅波动

Core Insights - The oil and chemical industry prosperity index decreased to 98.43 in August 2025, down 0.59 percentage points from July, ending a two-month recovery [2][10] - The upstream and downstream sectors are showing divergent trends, with upstream sectors experiencing slight improvements while downstream sectors face limited demand recovery [2][10] Industry Overview - The oil and gas extraction sector's index rose to 99.47, up 0.32 percentage points, while the fuel processing industry increased to 103.02, up 1.14 percentage points [7][10] - The chemical raw materials and products manufacturing index fell to 98.53, down 2.31 percentage points, and the rubber, plastic, and other polymer products manufacturing index decreased to 92.66, down 1.13 percentage points [7][10] Market Dynamics - International crude oil prices have been declining, with OPEC+ announcing an increase in production by 547,000 barrels per day starting in September, shifting the market focus from supply risks to demand risks [3][14] - The traditional consumption peak season is approaching, with expectations for demand recovery, but actual demand remains limited, leading to increased inventory levels [4][15] Future Outlook - In September, the oil market is expected to experience weak adjustments in prices due to strong supply and weak demand, while the chemical industry may see a slight recovery in the prosperity index due to seasonal demand improvements [8][16]