Analysis-ConocoPhillips' deep layoffs highlight need for capital discipline, analysts say

Core Viewpoint - ConocoPhillips needs to enhance its capital discipline and investment priorities to remain competitive as oil prices and revenues decline, leading to significant layoffs of up to 25% of its workforce [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Conditions - The company is facing a challenging oil market, with crude prices having fallen approximately 12% this year, and further declines expected in 2026 due to supply exceeding demand [3][4] - Increased output from OPEC+ and economic uncertainties related to U.S. trade policy have contributed to a downturn in crude prices, resulting in the lowest earnings for oil companies since the COVID-19 pandemic [2][3] Group 2: Company Challenges - ConocoPhillips has undertaken large capital-intensive projects, such as the acquisition of Marathon Oil for $22.5 billion, which has diverted focus from cost control [4][5] - The company is expected to cut capital expenditures this year to between $12.3 billion and $12.6 billion, approximately 10% lower than the previous year's pro forma capex [7] Group 3: Strategic Focus - The company must prioritize key projects like the Willow oil project in Alaska and the development of its liquefied natural gas business to drive future cash flow [5][6] - Some investors believe that the company should focus more on controlling rising capital expenditures rather than solely addressing workforce reductions [5][6]