美国就业数据重大修正强化降息预期 金价一度突破3670美元创新高

Core Insights - Gold prices reached a historic high of $3,674 per ounce, driven by heightened expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve due to revised U.S. employment data indicating a potential overestimation of job numbers by 911,000 [1] - Geopolitical tensions, including U.S. trade policy and military actions in the Middle East, have further supported the rise in gold prices as investors seek safe-haven assets [1] - Central banks globally, including the Czech National Bank and the People's Bank of China, have been increasing their gold reserves, contributing to a nearly 40% increase in gold prices this year [2] Market Dynamics - The upcoming U.S. Producer Price Index and Consumer Price Index reports are critical for influencing Federal Reserve policy decisions [1] - Analysts predict that the Federal Reserve may maintain a loose monetary policy until March 2026 due to rising labor market risks, with year-end gold price targets raised to $3,800 per ounce [2] - Current gold prices are significantly above long-term trend lines, suggesting a potential concern for investors who adhere to mean reversion strategies [3][5] Investment Sentiment - The demand for gold and silver is increasing as investors lose confidence in fiat currencies and seek alternatives amid global economic uncertainties [5] - Despite current prices being high relative to long-term trends, holding gold and silver remains a rational choice for investors in the current economic climate [5]