Core Viewpoint - First Shanghai maintains a "buy" rating for Kangchen Pharmaceutical (01681) and adjusts the profit forecast for 2025-2027, setting a target price of HKD 25.20, indicating a potential upside of 59.50% from the current price [1] Group 1: Overall Performance - Kangchen Pharmaceutical demonstrated strong performance in the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching RMB 1.569 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23.7% [1] - Gross profit grew approximately 27.6% to RMB 1.209 billion, with a gross margin of 77.1%, up 2.4 percentage points from the same period in 2024, attributed to lower raw material costs [1] - Shareholder profit attributable to the company was approximately RMB 498 million, a year-on-year increase of 24.6%, with a proposed interim dividend of HKD 0.33 per share, resulting in a payout ratio exceeding 51% [1] Group 2: Core Product Growth - Revenue from nephrology drugs reached approximately RMB 1.131 billion, a year-on-year increase of about 28.0%, driven by the core product, Uremia Qing granules, which maintains a leading position in the modern Chinese medicine category for kidney disease [2] - Revenue from pediatric and women's health drugs was approximately RMB 172 million, a year-on-year increase of about 17.5%, with the unique oral iron supplement, Yuanlikang, gaining market share after the removal of reimbursement restrictions [2] - Sales of medical imaging contrast agents reached approximately RMB 95 million, a year-on-year increase of about 22.0%, with multiple new products launched and a rich pipeline of products under development [2] Group 3: Leading Position in Nephrology - Uremia Qing granules are the flagship product of Kangchen Pharmaceutical, holding a leading position in the kidney disease Chinese medicine market, with a unique competitive advantage [3] - The product is primarily used for chronic kidney disease (CKD), effectively lowering serum creatinine levels and delaying the progression of CKD, with a high safety profile [3] - The prevalence of CKD in Chinese adults is as high as 8.2%, with an estimated patient population exceeding 120 million, indicating a substantial target market [3] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - Uremia Qing granules have a broad range of indications and high clinical application frequency, supported by a strong sales and public relations team [4] - The product is included in the medical insurance directory, making it affordable, and the company has adopted a "price for volume" strategy to consolidate and enhance market share [4] - Despite the expiration of the product's patent in 2024, the complexity of its compound formulation and stringent drug approval processes are expected to maintain high market barriers and a concentrated competitive landscape [4]
第一上海：维持康臣药业(01681)“买入”评级 目标价25.2港元