The 911K signal: Downward revision on US payrolls concerning

Group 1 - The preliminary report from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates a significant downward revision of 911,000 jobs in the payroll data for the year ending March, marking the largest revision on record since 2002 [1] - The White House has commented on the revisions, suggesting they highlight the need for new leadership at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which is responsible for the monthly jobs data [2] - The political implications of the job market data are being discussed, with the White House asserting that the job market weakness predates the Trump administration, thus distancing the current administration from the economic issues [3][4] Group 2 - The ongoing debate regarding the quality of the jobs report has been influenced by political narratives, particularly those from President Trump and his allies [5] - The market is now questioning whether the Federal Reserve is adequately responding to the labor market situation, with discussions about potential rate cuts becoming more prominent [6] - There is a 10% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut being considered, with a strong likelihood of a 25 basis point cut later this month, and market expectations are shifting towards pricing in three cuts in the current cycle [7]