Reliance Power, Reliance Infra shares down 36% in 3 months. Can Anil Ambani convince markets his turnaround still has legs?

Core Insights - Reliance Power and Reliance Infra have experienced significant stock price declines, with Reliance Power down 4.3% to Rs 44.65 and Reliance Infra down 3.9% to Rs 255.15 on a recent trading day [1][11] - Over the past year, Reliance Power has increased by 55% and Reliance Infra by 21%, but this is a stark decline from their peaks in May, where Reliance Power surged 173% and Reliance Infra climbed 141% [2][11] - The Enforcement Directorate has initiated a new case against Ambani under the Prevention of Money Laundering Act, which has contributed to negative sentiment surrounding the companies [3][11] Financial Performance - Reliance Power reported a net profit of Rs 44.68 crore for the June quarter, recovering from a loss of Rs 97.85 crore a year prior, although revenue fell by 5.3% to Rs 1,885.58 crore [5][11] - Reliance Infra posted a profit of Rs 59.84 crore compared to a loss of Rs 233.74 crore last year, but its revenue decreased nearly 18% to Rs 5,907.82 crore [5][11] Technical Analysis - Reliance Infra is currently trading within the Rs 265–Rs 275 range, with crucial support at Rs 260–Rs 255; sustaining above Rs 260 could lead to a rally towards Rs 285–Rs 305 [6][11] - For Reliance Power, the support level is identified at Rs 45–Rs 44, with potential upside targets of Rs 49.5–Rs 50 and further extension to Rs 53–Rs 54 if Rs 45 holds [7][11] Future Outlook - The next two quarters for Reliance Infra will depend on the execution of EPC projects, arbitration cash flows, and cost control measures [8][11] - Reliance Power's performance will be influenced by stable output from its Sasan and Rosa plants and the collection of receivables from distribution companies [8][11] - Analysts express caution regarding the impact of ongoing legal investigations on the companies' operational gains and overall market sentiment [9][11]