Aon: U.S. Employer Health Care Costs Expected to Rise 9.5 Percent in 2026

Core Insights - U.S. employer health care costs are projected to rise by 9.5 percent in 2026, exceeding $17,000 per employee, marking the third consecutive year of elevated health care cost trends near double digits [1][9]. Health Care Cost Drivers - The rise in chronic conditions, such as musculoskeletal and cardiovascular diseases, along with high-cost conditions like cancer, are primary drivers of escalating medical costs in the U.S. [2] - Increased spending on prescription drugs, particularly brand-name and specialty medications, is also contributing to rising costs, with a notable surge in demand for GLP-1 therapies for diabetes and obesity treatment [3]. Employer Strategies - Employers are expected to absorb the majority of health care cost increases, implementing strategies such as benefit design changes, increasing employee payroll contributions, and managing chronic conditions to mitigate rising expenditures [4][5]. - The average annual increase in employer costs from 2024 to 2025 is 7.2 percent, while employee premiums from paychecks are expected to rise by 4.7 percent [6]. Cost Sharing and Industry Variations - On average, employers cover about 81 percent of health care plan costs, with employees responsible for the remaining share [5]. - The technology and communications industry has the highest average employer cost increase at 8.8 percent, while the finance and insurance industry sees the highest average employee cost increase at 6.8 percent [7][8]. Future Projections - Employers are concerned that health care cost trends will remain elevated, with ongoing changes in the health care landscape making it less likely for costs to return to manageable levels [9]. - Aon's Health Price Transparency Analysis aims to provide employers with insights into provider pricing, enabling informed decisions regarding health plan expenditures [10]. Predictive Analytics - Aon's data indicates that 5 percent of members account for 60 percent of all medical and pharmacy spending, with over 50 percent of high-cost claimants being predictable [11]. - The Health Risk Analyzer tool helps employers forecast health care costs and claims risk with greater confidence, allowing for targeted cost management strategies [12].