Group 1 - The U.S. Labor Department revised the non-farm employment data for April 2024 to March 2025, showing a decrease of 911,000 jobs compared to initial estimates, marking the largest downward revision since 2000, averaging nearly 76,000 fewer jobs per month [1] - Almost all sectors experienced downward adjustments in employment figures, with significant reductions in leisure and hospitality (176,000 jobs), professional and business services (158,000 jobs), and retail (126,000 jobs) [1] - The substantial downward revision of employment data reflects a weakening labor market, which is a critical factor for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions, potentially impacting market confidence and policy formulation [1] Group 2 - In August, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by only 22,000 jobs, significantly below the expected increase of 75,000 jobs, indicating a growing concern regarding the labor market [2] - The revisions for June and July showed a combined decrease of 21,000 jobs, with June marking the first decline in employment numbers since 2020 [2] - The growth in non-farm employment in August was primarily driven by education and healthcare services, leisure and hospitality, and other services, while many sectors, including mining, construction, manufacturing, and professional services, reported negative growth [2] Group 3 - Recent employment data falling below market expectations has reignited discussions about a potential 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with a 91.8% probability of at least a 25 basis point cut [3] - The labor market's evident cooling necessitates a rate cut by the Federal Reserve to address the pressures of a weakening job market and slowing economic growth [3] - The three-month average of new non-farm employment remains around 30,000, significantly lower than the 100,000 mark, indicating persistent weakness in the U.S. labor market [3]
美国大幅下修就业增长数据 市场预期美联储9月份大概率降息
Zheng Quan Ri Bao Wang·2025-09-10 13:35