头顶MAGA光环的Gemini(GEMI.US)即将登陆美股 接下来的问题是：“特朗普流量”还能盖住财务黑洞吗?

Core Insights - The Winklevoss twins are leveraging their political connections with the "MAGA" movement to boost the valuation of their cryptocurrency exchange, Gemini, ahead of its IPO, despite the company facing significant financial losses [1][2][17] - Gemini's valuation is set at approximately $3.1 billion, which is less than half of its valuation during a funding round in 2021, highlighting a decline in market position compared to competitors like Coinbase [2][17] - The twins have shifted from Democratic donors to staunch supporters of Trump, significantly increasing their political contributions, including a $21 million Bitcoin donation to a pro-Trump political action committee [5][8] Company Performance - Gemini reported a net loss of $282.5 million in the first half of the year, nearly seven times the loss from the same period last year, indicating ongoing financial struggles [17] - The company has a market share of only 3% in the U.S. cryptocurrency trading market, which has remained low for most of the past three years [17][19] - Gemini's revenue primarily comes from trading fees, but it has expanded into NFTs, crypto-backed credit cards, and stablecoins, although its own stablecoin's market cap has nearly halved [17][19] IPO Details - The IPO is expected to raise up to $433 million, with a significant portion allocated to retail investors through platforms like Robinhood [2][21] - The twins hold approximately 97% of the voting rights in Gemini, which may raise questions about the IPO's purpose and whether it is primarily a liquidity event for existing owners [19][21] - Despite the company's poor performance metrics, the IPO has seen oversubscription, suggesting strong interest from investors [8][20] Market Context - The cryptocurrency market has been influenced by regulatory changes and the political climate, with the twins benefiting from favorable policies during the Trump administration [8][17] - Gemini's trading volume is significantly lower than that of competitors, with recent data showing it only trades 84 cryptocurrencies compared to Coinbase's 317 and Kraken's 495 [18][19] - The company's adherence to regulatory compliance may have hindered its growth compared to more aggressive competitors [18][19]