Core Insights - The report indicates that coal power generation is expected to peak this year, with a maximum output of 5.55 trillion kilowatt-hours, primarily due to a slowdown in overall electricity demand and rapid growth in renewable energy capacity [1][2] - The report anticipates that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, total electricity consumption will grow by approximately 4 trillion kilowatt-hours, driven by factors such as rapid GDP growth and increased electrification [1] - The coal power industry is facing a demand peak, limiting future growth potential, while installed capacity continues to rise, which may further reduce profitability [3][4] Electricity Consumption and Growth - During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, electricity consumption is projected to increase by 1.4 to 1.7 trillion kilowatt-hours, which can be met by renewable energy sources [2] - The report estimates that from 2025 to 2035, non-coal power resources in China are expected to grow by over 300 million kilowatts annually, adequately meeting electricity demand [2] Coal Power Generation Trends - In the first half of this year, coal power generation has already shown a decline, with a reported 2.94 trillion kilowatt-hours generated, a year-on-year decrease of 2.41% [2] - The growth rate of coal power generation was around 9% in 2021, approximately 7% in 2023, and only about 1% in both 2022 and 2024 [2] Market Dynamics and Pricing - The coal power sector is transitioning from a primary energy source to a regulatory power source, with an increase in installed capacity despite limited growth in generation [4] - The average coal consumption for power generation has significantly decreased, reaching 300.7 grams of standard coal per kilowatt-hour, a reduction of over 10 grams since 2016 [9] - The introduction of market mechanisms for electricity pricing is leading to a decline in profitability for coal power plants, as they are now required to participate in market trading [5][6] Renewable Energy Impact - The marginal cost of renewable energy generation is approaching zero, which is expected to lower wholesale electricity prices, while the system will incur higher costs to accommodate the increased renewable capacity [11] - The report emphasizes the need for a pricing system that reflects the capabilities of different energy resources to ensure the sustainability of the energy market [11]
煤电效益面临多重挑战,专家建议充分发挥其调节性作用
Jing Ji Guan Cha Wang·2025-09-10 14:17