UPS vs. JBHT: Which Dividend-Paying Transportation Stock Has an Edge?

Core Insights - United Parcel Service (UPS) and J.B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT) have both announced dividend increases this year, demonstrating a commitment to shareholder returns despite economic uncertainties [1][3][10] - JBHT has shown better price performance compared to UPS, driven by intermodal growth and sustainability initiatives [8][10][19] Dividend Analysis - UPS raised its quarterly cash dividend to $1.64 per share ($6.56 annualized) from $1.63 ($6.52 annualized) [3] - J.B. Hunt increased its quarterly cash dividend by 2.3% to 44 cents per share ($1.76 annualized) from 43 cents ($1.72 annualized) [3] - Concerns about the sustainability of UPS's dividends arise due to its high payout ratio and declining free cash flow [4][6] Financial Performance - UPS's free cash flow has decreased from a peak of $9 billion in 2022, with only $742 million generated in the first half of 2025 against $2.7 billion paid in dividends [5][6] - JBHT's lower dividend payout ratio indicates a stronger ability to maintain dividend payments over the long term [6][18] Market Comparison - JBHT's intermodal volume grew by 6% in the second quarter of 2025, supported by strong performance in its eastern network [12] - UPS's revenue weakness is attributed to geopolitical uncertainty and high inflation, leading to a decline in package shipping volumes [11] Earnings Estimates - Zacks Consensus Estimate for JBHT indicates a 0.3% decrease in 2025 sales, but a 5.8% increase in 2026 [13] - For UPS, the 2025 sales estimate suggests a 3.9% decrease, with a 15.4% decrease in EPS for the same year [16] Valuation Metrics - JBHT is trading at a forward sales multiple of 1.09X, while UPS has a multiple of 0.81X, indicating that JBHT is perceived as more expensive [18] - JBHT has a Value Score of B, whereas UPS has a Value Score of A [18] Conclusion - JBHT's better price performance, environmental initiatives, and strong intermodal volumes position it as a more favorable investment compared to UPS, which currently has a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) versus JBHT's 3 (Hold) [19]