就业增长数据一夜“缩水” 美联储降息面临艰难平衡

Core Insights - The U.S. Labor Department revised its employment data, indicating that from April 2024 to March 2025, the U.S. added 911,000 fewer jobs than initially reported, suggesting a weaker job market than previously expected [1] - The revision highlights that the U.S. job market may have shown signs of weakness even before the tariffs were implemented, with the trade war further dampening job growth [1] Employment Sector Analysis - The revised data shows that the leisure and hospitality sector added 176,000 fewer jobs than initially reported, professional and business services 158,000 fewer, and retail 126,000 fewer jobs [1] - The August non-farm payroll data revealed only a 22,000 increase in jobs, significantly lower than the revised 79,000 in July and far below market expectations of 75,000 [1] Economic Implications - Analysts believe the weak job market strengthens expectations for the Federal Reserve to initiate a new round of interest rate cuts in September, although the Fed faces a difficult decision regarding the pace of these cuts [2] - Market predictions indicate a high likelihood of at least a 25 basis point cut in September, while the probability of a 50 basis point cut remains low at 10% [2]