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Is TGT's Operational Reset Laying the Foundation for Margin Recovery?
TargetTarget(US:TGT) ZACKSยท2025-09-10 14:31

Core Insights - Target Corporation (TGT) has made significant progress in stabilizing operations during Q2 of fiscal 2025, completing planned inventory adjustments and improving key execution metrics [1][4] - The company has seen a reduction in shrink costs, which positively impacted operating margins, returning them to pre-pandemic levels [2][9] - Target has managed to decrease SG&A expenses while investing in wages and technology, indicating a more efficient operating model [3][4] Inventory and Operations - Ending inventory dollars increased by 2% year over year, while unit counts declined in the low single digits, leading to a healthier assortment [1] - On-shelf metrics have reached their strongest levels in years, setting a solid foundation for the upcoming holiday season [1] Financial Performance - Operating margin improved by approximately 130 basis points in Q2 due to shrink improvements, with an expected benefit of about 80 basis points for the full year [2][9] - SG&A expenses decreased by 0.1% year over year, reflecting cost discipline [3] Market Position and Valuation - Target's stock has declined by 32.7% year to date, underperforming compared to industry growth of 6.3% and key peers like Dollar General and Costco [5] - The forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio for Target is 11.52, significantly lower than the industry average of 31, indicating a valuation discount [6] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TGT's fiscal 2025 earnings suggests a year-over-year decline of 15.5%, while fiscal 2026 indicates growth of 8.9% [7]