美国经济衰退风险加剧，美元“失宠”，全球投资者“囤金”

Core Viewpoint - The significant downward revision of the U.S. non-farm employment data has intensified market expectations for a potential quick or sustained interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, leading to a surge in gold prices, which briefly surpassed $3,700 per ounce [1][2]. Economic Outlook - The U.S. Labor Department's annual non-farm employment benchmark revision revealed a downward adjustment of 911,000 jobs, indicating a monthly average decrease of nearly 76,000 jobs, reinforcing the expectation of an economic slowdown [2][5]. - Analysts suggest that the labor market's deterioration has been underestimated, with historical data indicating that a continuous drop in non-farm employment below 100,000 often signals an impending recession [5][8]. Market Reactions - The revision has raised concerns about the quality of official employment statistics and the potential "politicization of data," driving increased risk aversion and investment in traditional safe-haven assets like gold [8][9]. - Gold prices have shown a strong upward trend, with six out of seven trading days in September reaching new highs, reflecting the market's response to economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions [9][10]. Federal Reserve Policy Expectations - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is at 91.8%, with a 50 basis point cut at 8.2%. For October, the cumulative probabilities for a 25 basis point cut are 24.1%, while a 50 basis point cut stands at 69.8% [6][7]. - The ongoing economic challenges and inflationary pressures suggest that the Fed may continue to adopt a gradual approach to rate cuts, potentially reaching a neutral rate range of 3.0-3.5% by next year [6].