就业数据主导市场叙事 华尔街股票交易员不再惧怕通胀

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street traders expect the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report to show persistent inflation, but do not anticipate significant market reactions due to employment data dominating the narrative [1] Group 1: Market Reactions and Predictions - Options traders are betting on a mild 0.7% fluctuation in the S&P 500 index following the CPI report, which is lower than the average 0.9% fluctuation observed over the past year [1] - Current implied volatility is considered high, depending on traders' predictions regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate path [1] - The market is pricing in over a 1% rate cut from the Federal Reserve over the next year, but rising inflation could disrupt this expectation [1][3] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook - Barclays economists now predict three rate cuts of 25 basis points each this year, with two additional cuts in 2026 [3] - If the CPI report shows a significant rise in consumer prices, inflation could accelerate towards the end of the year and extend into 2026, potentially leading the Federal Reserve to maintain rates in October and December [3] Group 3: Core CPI Predictions and Market Impact - Economists forecast a 0.3% month-over-month increase in the core CPI for August, resulting in a year-over-year increase of 3.1%, exceeding the Federal Reserve's 2% target [4] - The most likely scenario for core CPI is a month-over-month increase between 0.3% and 0.35%, with the S&P 500 expected to fluctuate between a decline of 0.25% and an increase of 0.5% [4][5] - If core CPI rises above 0.4%, the S&P 500 could drop by up to 2%, although this scenario has only a 5% probability [5][6] Group 4: Economic Growth and Market Sentiment - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model indicates a robust 3% annualized growth rate for Q3, slightly down from 3.3% in Q2, contributing to low risk expectations among traders [5] - The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) remains below the critical 20 level, indicating low market concern [5] - The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index is nearing its highest level since January, suggesting that positive economic surprises could complicate the Federal Reserve's inflation control efforts [6]