We're in a no hiring, no firing economy, says JPMorgan Asset's Phil Camporeale

Group 1 - The S&P 500 has reached its 23rd record high this year, indicating a positive shift in market sentiment as concerns that previously suppressed valuations are fading [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to begin easing monetary policy, with GDP growth projected to increase from 1% this year to 2% next year, suggesting a pro-cyclical environment [2] - Interest rate volatility is at its lowest since 2022, creating an ideal environment for asset allocators to take on more risk in their portfolios [4] Group 2 - The probability of a recession over the next 12 months is estimated to be between 20% and 25%, supporting expectations of double-digit earnings growth next year [5] - Consumer spending, which constitutes 70% of the US economy, is expected to receive a boost from recent fiscal policies and lower federal funds rates [5] - The labor market is described as stagnant, with job creation decreasing from an average of over 200,000 jobs per month last year to about 75,000 this year, indicating potential challenges for the Federal Reserve [8][10] Group 3 - The 10-year Treasury note is highlighted as a significant factor for consumers, especially with $7 trillion in money market funds facing reinvestment risks [7] - Initial jobless claims have remained relatively stable, averaging 227,000 this year, which presents a complex situation for the Federal Reserve [9][10] - The outlook for both equities and credit remains positive, with expectations of double-digit earnings growth and 2% GDP growth next year [11]