Buy, Sell or Hold Adobe Stock? Key Tips Ahead of Q3 Earnings

Core Insights - Adobe is expected to report its third-quarter fiscal 2025 results on September 11, projecting total revenues between $5.87 billion and $5.92 billion, with non-GAAP earnings anticipated between $5.15 and $5.20 per share [1][9]. Revenue and Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is $5.9 billion, indicating a growth of 9.09% from the previous year's quarter. The consensus for earnings remains at $5.17 per share, reflecting an 11.2% increase from the year-ago quarter [2]. Competitive Landscape - Adobe faces significant competition in the AI and Generative AI sectors from companies like Microsoft and OpenAI, along with challenges in monetizing its AI solutions. The current macroeconomic environment is also a headwind for Adobe's growth prospects [4]. Product Adoption and Growth - Adobe's AI-powered solutions, such as GenStudio and Firefly Services, have seen strong adoption, contributing to a combined monthly active user growth of over 25% year over year, surpassing 700 million users by the end of the fiscal second quarter [5][8]. Segment Performance Expectations - For the third quarter of fiscal 2025, Adobe anticipates Digital Media segment revenues between $4.37 billion and $4.40 billion, while Digital Experience segment revenues are expected to range from $1.45 billion to $1.47 billion [8]. Stock Performance - Year-to-date, Adobe shares have declined by 20.4%, underperforming the broader Zacks Computer and Technology sector, which has returned 15.9%, and the Zacks Computer Software industry, which has appreciated by 15.2% [9][10]. Valuation Metrics - Adobe's stock is currently trading at a forward 12-month price/book ratio of 13.12X, which is higher than the sector average of 10.55X, Microsoft's 10.79X, and Alphabet's 7.99X, but lower than Apple's 52.83X [13]. AI Portfolio Expansion - Adobe's second-quarter results indicate progress in expanding its AI portfolio, with a target of exceeding $250 million in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) from AI-first products by the end of fiscal 2025 [16][17].