Core Viewpoint - Stainless steel futures are experiencing fluctuations, with the main contract slightly down by 0.08% to 12,920.00 CNY/ton as of September 10 [1] Industry Summary - As of September 9, the total scrap steel inventory across 300 representative steel mills in China is 4.912 million tons, a decrease of 0.71 thousand tons or 0.14% from the previous day. The inventory turnover days are 7.7 days, down by 0.2 days, with a daily consumption of 567 thousand tons, a slight decrease of 0.09% from the previous day. Daily arrivals total 559.9 thousand tons, down by 0.85% [2] - On September 9, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a decrease in stainless steel warehouse receipts to 98,534 tons, down by 422 tons from the previous trading day [2] - The Tangshan steel billet index is at 3,020.0, with the settlement price for Tangshan Qian'an ordinary billet at 3,000 CNY, a weekly average of 2,980 CNY, and a monthly average of 3,019.33 CNY. Current market prices from traders are around 3,050 CNY [2] Company Insights - New Lake Futures indicates that downstream demand for stainless steel remains weak, despite some production cuts by domestic stainless steel enterprises. Inventory levels remain high, and with nickel prices declining and speculative trading cooling off, stainless steel prices are returning to fundamentals. Both stainless steel and nickel prices are currently at relatively low levels, suggesting caution in short-selling [3] - Ruida Futures notes that the Indonesian government's PNBP policy has increased nickel resource supply costs, but nickel pig iron production is recovering significantly, leading to a notable decline in nickel pig iron prices, which reduces raw material cost support. On the supply side, steel mill production profits have improved due to rising steel prices and weaker raw material cost increases, suggesting an increase in production in August. On the demand side, the end of the traditional consumption off-season is approaching, with optimistic expectations for the "golden September and silver October" period, alongside favorable domestic fiscal investment policies. Measures to reduce internal competition are expected to improve the supply-demand balance, with market purchasing intentions recovering and previously accumulated orders being released. Additionally, holders are willing to sell, maintaining a trend of inventory reduction in the domestic market, with stable spot prices [3]
国内市场保持去库存趋势 不锈钢期货追空需谨慎
Jin Tou Wang·2025-09-10 07:09