Can You Have Your Cake & Eat It Too?

Markets are currently pricing in a Goldilocks scenario. Investors believe tariffs will not compress corporate margins, inflation is contained, labor markets will soften just enough to allow rate cuts without triggering a recession, and AI will drive an acceleration in productivity. As the Reddit crowd would say, "stonks to the moon.†Content continues below advertisement We think that perfect outcome is a low-probability scenario and that the market is too optimistic that earnings growth will remain strong ...