Israeli Surprise Strike on Qatar Sends Oil Prices Higher

Group 1: Market Reactions - A surprise Israeli strike on Hamas targets in Qatar led to a brief spike in Brent crude prices above $67 per barrel, as traders adjusted for increased Middle East risk and potential supply disruptions [1][7]. Group 2: LNG Supply and Demand - Global LNG supply is expected to enter a prolonged oversupply phase starting in 2026, driven by significant increases from the US, Qatar, Canada, and Russia [2]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) anticipates a 7% year-over-year increase in LNG demand, despite higher supplies, as boil-off reduces the incentive for long-term gas storage [3]. - Current LNG prices for October delivery are in the range of $11.00-11.50 per MMBtu, with projections for JKM and TTF prices to fall into single digits by Q4 2026 and remain below $10 per MMBtu for the rest of the decade [3]. Group 3: Market Movements and Investments - BP signed a memorandum of understanding with Egyptian authorities to explore five new gas wells in the Mediterranean, enhancing exploration efforts in the region [5]. - Strathcona Resources increased its offer for MEG Energy to $30.86 per share, competing against Cenovus Energy's bid of $27.79 per share [5]. - Shell transferred a 55% interest in its offshore Block 04 in São Tomé and Principe to Petrobras and Galp, indicating strategic partnerships in energy exploration [6]. - Chevron announced plans to invest heavily in petrochemicals in South Korea while reducing its refining operations in Singapore [6]. Group 4: Geopolitical Factors - Russia's involvement in the LNG market could introduce volatility, particularly as China begins purchasing sanctioned gas from the Arctic LNG 2 plant, potentially exacerbating oversupply conditions [4].