【环时深度】“走马灯式”换总理，法国怎么了？

Political Situation - The appointment of new Prime Minister Lecornu follows the resignation of former Prime Minister Borne, who failed to secure a confidence vote in the National Assembly, highlighting the fragmentation of French politics [1][7] - Public sentiment is increasingly negative, with 74% of respondents viewing the government's collapse as a warning that France is "ungovernable" [7] - The political instability is exacerbated by the fragmented National Assembly, where left-wing, centrist, and far-right parties are in a state of deadlock, making it difficult for any government to maintain support [7][8] Economic Challenges - France's public debt has reached approximately €3.35 trillion, accounting for about 113% of its GDP, with projections indicating it could rise to 125% by 2030 [4] - The budget deficit for this year is estimated to be between 5.4% and 5.8% of GDP, significantly exceeding the EU's limit of 3% [4] - The government faces a dilemma of needing to cut public spending while also maintaining essential services, leading to widespread public discontent [4][5] Social Unrest - Recent protests, including the "Let’s Block Everything" movement, reflect widespread anger among the populace, with nearly 25% expressing frustration with the current state of the nation [3][5] - The ongoing economic challenges, including rising living costs due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine conflict, have intensified social inequalities and dissatisfaction with government policies [3][4] Future Outlook - Analysts express skepticism about the ability of any political party to achieve consensus on debt reduction, given the rise of populist movements on both the left and right [6] - The frequent changes in government are likely to undermine policy continuity, further fueling public disillusionment and potentially empowering extreme political factions [11][12] - The political and economic crises in France could have broader implications for the EU, as France is a key player in the Eurozone and its instability may affect regional economic stability [12][13]