降息预期压倒经济隐忧！调查显示：美股今年有望强势收官

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is expected to overcome inflation risks and weak employment prospects, ending the year with upward momentum, driven by anticipated interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve by year-end [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Two-thirds of survey respondents believe the S&P 500 index will continue to rise through 2025, largely due to signals of further interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [1] - A significant drop in non-farm payroll data has led traders to bet on three interest rate cuts this year, starting from September 17 [1] - Less than one-fifth of respondents view economic data recovery as a catalyst for stock market gains, indicating prevailing economic concerns [2] Group 2: Economic Outlook - Analysts warn that if the Federal Reserve cuts rates as expected, it may dampen investor enthusiasm, similar to last year's scenario where a 50 basis point cut led to a decline in the S&P 500 [2] - The current economic environment is characterized by mild stagflation, with inflation expected to rise slightly while unemployment worsens [4] - Despite a stagnant job market and challenges in the real estate sector, manufacturing and service sectors show signs of improvement, contributing to a favorable environment for the stock market [4] Group 3: Asset Performance Expectations - Respondents anticipate that stocks will provide higher risk-adjusted returns compared to bonds in the coming month [6] - There is a divergence among respondents regarding the future movement of the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, but most expect the yield curve to steepen due to ongoing inflation and fiscal concerns [6]