美国8月CPI前瞻：整体通胀逼近3%？是否搅局美联储决议

Core Insights - The upcoming August Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is expected to confirm persistent inflation issues, with commodity and service prices maintaining high pressure on overall prices [2][3] - The Federal Reserve's future policy path remains uncertain due to potential stagflation risks, despite expectations of interest rate cuts [2][6] Inflation Pressure - July CPI data indicates that tariffs are not the only challenge in combating inflation, as service sector inflation remains high and commodity prices are rebounding, hindering the downward trend in inflation [3] - Wall Street anticipates a 0.3% month-over-month increase in August CPI, with a year-over-year rise of 2.9%, reflecting a 0.2 percentage point acceleration [3] - Food and energy prices are expected to support overall CPI, with core CPI projected to rise 0.3% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year, consistent with July figures [3] Commodity Prices - Wells Fargo predicts that core commodity prices will see a slight increase in August, with new car inflation expected to rise due to recovering sales and reduced inventory [4] - Prices for imported goods such as clothing and communication hardware are also expected to maintain steady growth, with core commodity prices projected to rise 1.5% year-over-year, the highest since May 2023 [4] Service Sector Inflation - Service sector inflation has somewhat offset rising commodity prices, but this effect is diminishing, with travel-related service prices rebounding in July and expected to continue strong growth in August [4] - Increased consumer demand for travel is indicated by rising hotel occupancy rates and TSA passenger screening numbers [4] Tariff Impact - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to persist, with core CPI month-over-month increases projected to remain around 0.3% [5] - The phased implementation of tariffs is anticipated to prevent sudden price spikes, although overall inflation data is expected to show significant price increases [5] Policy Outlook - Following a downward revision of non-farm employment data, the market anticipates a 75 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate by the end of the year, with a nearly 80% chance of a rate cut in October [6] - The upcoming CPI report is crucial for influencing the Federal Reserve's decision on future rate cuts, with concerns about the sustainability of inflation due to tariff costs [7][8] Market Reactions - Investors are increasingly focused on core service inflation risks, which may prompt a reassessment of the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate cut plans if overall inflation data exceeds expectations [8] - The potential for a modest increase in CPI could still lead the Federal Reserve to signal concerns about future price increases while proceeding with rate cuts [8]