中国银河证券:糖尿病未来国产替代空间广阔 创新有望实现弯道超车
智通财经网·2025-09-11 01:26

Core Viewpoint - The GLP-1 class of drugs is experiencing explosive growth due to its dual indications for glycemic control and weight loss, with the global market expected to exceed $50 billion in 2024 and China's market projected to grow from 8.7 billion yuan in 2023 to 23.3 billion yuan by 2025 [1] Group 1: Market Size and Growth - The global diabetes drug market is expected to reach $90.2 billion by 2025 and $109.1 billion by 2030, with China projected to have a diabetes drug market size of 116.1 billion yuan by 2025 and 167.5 billion yuan by 2030 [1] - GLP-1 drugs are identified as the main growth driver in the diabetes drug market, benefiting from their dual indications [1] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The oral hypoglycemic drug market has limited growth due to comprehensive coverage by traditional drug procurement, while DPP-4i/SGLT-2i drugs continue to show growth potential [2] - The competition in the GLP-1 sector is intensifying, with major players like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly leading globally, and many domestic companies entering the market with biosimilars as patents for popular GLP-1 drugs expire [2] Group 3: Innovation and Industry Trends - The industry is evolving towards long-acting, multi-target, and innovative dosage forms, with innovation becoming the core focus [3] - Key players such as Ganli Pharmaceutical and Tonghua Dongbao are enhancing their market share through innovative products and strategies, including dual-target and oral GLP-1 drugs [3] - Emerging biotech companies are accelerating their pipeline development, with several products entering late-stage clinical trials [3]