美国8月CPI前瞻：整体通胀逼近3%？

Group 1 - The upcoming August Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is expected to show persistent inflation pressures, complicating the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts [1][5] - Wall Street anticipates a 0.3% month-over-month increase in the August CPI, with a year-over-year rise of 2.9%, indicating a 0.2 percentage point acceleration [2][3] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, is projected to rise 0.3% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year, remaining consistent with July figures [2][4] Group 2 - The increase in tariffs and rising food prices, particularly for common items like beef, are expected to contribute to higher overall CPI data [2][4] - The core goods prices are anticipated to see a slight increase, with a year-over-year rise reaching 1.5%, the highest since May 2023 [3][4] - Service sector inflation is showing signs of resurgence, particularly in travel-related services, which may counterbalance the easing of goods inflation [3][4] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's decision-making is influenced by the labor market's deterioration and the potential for continued inflation, with a significant chance of rate cuts in the coming months [5][6] - Investors are closely monitoring the CPI report as it may impact the Fed's willingness to continue rate cuts post-September [6][7] - Concerns are growing regarding the impact of core service inflation on overall inflation, which could lead to a reassessment of the Fed's aggressive rate cut strategy [7]