民生证券：聚变时代加速到来 Z箍缩路线走进主流视野

Core Insights - The global fusion industry has experienced explosive growth over the past five years, with total investment rising from $1.9 billion in 2021 to $9.7 billion, including an increase of $2.6 billion in the last year alone, reflecting mature investor confidence, technological breakthroughs, and rapid supply chain integration [1][2] - The era of controllable nuclear fusion is accelerating, with 2030 seen as a critical period for commercialization, driven by the advantages of abundant raw materials, high efficiency, and safety [2][3] Investment Opportunities - Companies involved in Z-pinch drivers, fusion targets, and deep subcritical fission blankets are recommended for investment, as Z-pinch technology is rapidly developing and its commercialization path is becoming clearer [1][4] - The Z-pinch technology is expected to significantly boost investments in key areas such as drivers, fusion targets, and deep subcritical fission blankets, with a focus on critical technologies like high-yield fusion target design and large current driver design [4][5] Technological Developments - Inertial confinement technology, particularly Z-pinch technology, is gaining recognition for its safety, economic viability, durability, and environmental friendliness, with significant advancements being made [3][4] - The U.S. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory achieved a historic milestone by producing 3.15 megajoules of fusion energy output, surpassing the fusion ignition threshold, marking a significant step towards the fusion energy era [3] Future Projections - The development of Z-pinch technology is expected to progress through three phases: critical technology breakthroughs (2024-2030), engineering demonstration (2031-2040), and commercial power generation (post-2040), with specific milestones set for each phase [5]