2025年中国甲基叔丁基醚（MTBE）行业供需及价格概析：供需宽松格局深化促使价格中枢承压下移[图]

Core Viewpoint - The MTBE industry is facing challenges due to a slowdown in external demand, internal demand growth stagnation, and continuous release of new production capacity, leading to a deepening supply-demand imbalance and downward pressure on prices. The industry is transitioning towards high value-added product development and green production processes to address the challenges posed by the shrinking traditional fuel market [1][8]. Group 1: Industry Overview - MTBE, or methyl tert-butyl ether, is a colorless, transparent liquid with a characteristic ether odor, known for its low boiling and freezing points, and excellent solubility in organic solvents. It is highly flammable and is used primarily as a gasoline additive to improve octane ratings and fuel efficiency [2][3]. - In 2024, China's MTBE production is projected to reach 16.857 million tons, while demand is expected to be 14.376 million tons, indicating a surplus in production capacity [1][8]. Group 2: Policy Background - China's MTBE industry policies focus on energy conservation, carbon reduction, and environmental protection, promoting production upgrades and risk management. The government is pushing for a transition from scale expansion to green and intensive development, enhancing international competitiveness while ensuring environmental safety [4]. Group 3: Industry Chain - The MTBE industry chain consists of upstream raw material supply primarily from C4 fractions and methanol, with production processes involving etherification and distillation. The downstream application is dominated by gasoline blending, which accounts for approximately 94% of the market share, while chemical applications represent about 5% [6][8]. Group 4: Current Industry Status - The MTBE industry in China is experiencing structural overcapacity, with production capacity expanding but growth rates slowing. The industry is increasingly relying on export markets to alleviate supply-demand imbalances, with exports becoming a key channel for balancing excess capacity [8][10]. Group 5: Import and Export Dynamics - China's MTBE imports have significantly decreased, reflecting enhanced domestic production capacity and reduced reliance on foreign sources. In 2024, imports are expected to be 0.38 thousand tons, a 52% increase from 2023, while exports are projected to reach 2.4851 million tons, a 32.1% increase from the previous year [10][11]. Group 6: Competitive Landscape - The MTBE production capacity in China is highly fragmented, with the leading company holding only about 6% market share. The low concentration and severe overcapacity have led to market imbalances, necessitating industry consolidation and diversification into chemical raw materials and other applications [13]. Group 7: Future Trends - The MTBE industry is accelerating its transition to green and low-carbon production methods, focusing on developing new catalysts and optimizing waste gas treatment technologies. The industry aims to reduce energy consumption and emissions while responding to national carbon reduction goals [14].