核心CPI涨幅连续4个月扩大

Core Insights - The consumer price index (CPI) remained stable in August, with a month-on-month change of 0% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.4% [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, increased by 0.9% year-on-year, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth [1][4] CPI Analysis - The year-on-year decline in CPI is attributed to a high comparison base from the previous year and lower-than-seasonal food price increases in August [1][2] - The tail effect from last year's price changes contributed approximately -0.9 percentage points to the year-on-year CPI in August, with a downward impact that expanded by 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - Food prices saw a month-on-month increase of 0.5%, but this was 1.1 percentage points below seasonal levels, with significant year-on-year declines in pork, eggs, and fresh vegetables [4] Food Price Dynamics - Year-on-year food prices decreased by 4.3%, with the decline expanding by 2.7 percentage points compared to the previous month, contributing an additional 0.51 percentage points to the CPI's year-on-year decline [4] - Specific declines included pork prices down 16.1%, fresh vegetables down 15.2%, and eggs down 14.2%, all showing an increase in downward pressure on CPI compared to the previous month [4] Core CPI and Industrial Prices - The core CPI's year-on-year increase of 0.9% reflects ongoing consumer demand and the effectiveness of policies aimed at boosting consumption [4][5] - Industrial consumer goods prices, excluding energy, rose by 1.5% year-on-year, with gold and platinum jewelry prices increasing significantly [6] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the CPI may remain weak throughout the year, with potential recovery towards the end of the year due to low base effects and supportive policies [6] - The impact of consumption-boosting policies is expected to further support prices of major goods in September [6]