独家对话贝莱德：AI主导全球投资主线，中国科技股吸引海外关注

Group 1 - BlackRock is particularly optimistic about AI-driven large-cap tech stocks in the U.S. over the next 12 months, supported by strong expectations for interest rate cuts and the ongoing AI bull market [1] - Despite a neutral overall view on the Chinese stock market, BlackRock is optimistic about Chinese tech stocks due to significant valuation gaps compared to global peers, especially U.S. tech stocks [1][7] - The firm expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates twice this year, contrary to market expectations of 5-6 cuts, due to a moderate economic slowdown and persistent inflation pressures [4][5] Group 2 - The U.S. job market shows signs of complexity, with recent non-farm payroll data indicating a slowdown, but this may not reflect true market weakness due to labor supply issues [3] - Inflation remains a concern, with average hourly wages rising 3.7% year-on-year, which could lead to a wage-price spiral, complicating the Fed's dual mandate of price stability and full employment [3][4] - BlackRock maintains a cautious stance on the Fed's rate cuts, predicting a more conservative approach compared to other institutions, which foresee more aggressive cuts [4] Group 3 - The AI wave is expected to benefit large-cap tech stocks, with significant capital expenditure in AI projected at $500 billion annually, indicating long-term growth potential across various sectors [5][6] - The traditional mean reversion strategy may not apply in the current macro environment, as inflation rates remain unstable and economic growth lacks long-term anchors [5][6] - Foreign investment interest in China is rising, with a focus on the country's AI development capabilities, supported by government policies and a strong engineering workforce [7][8] Group 4 - China's cloud service providers are experiencing significant capital expenditure growth, outpacing global averages, driven by increasing demand for AI capabilities [8] - Local AI chip manufacturers are ramping up R&D efforts to reduce reliance on single suppliers like NVIDIA, as domestic demand for AI technology continues to surge [8]