贝莱德：AI主导全球投资主线，中国科技股吸引海外关注

Group 1: Investment Outlook - BlackRock is particularly optimistic about AI-driven large-cap tech stocks in the U.S. over the next 12 months, supported by strong expectations for interest rate cuts in the U.S. [1] - The firm predicts that the Federal Reserve will implement two rate cuts this year, contrary to the market's expectation of 5-6 cuts, due to a moderate economic slowdown rather than a recession [1][4] - BlackRock maintains a neutral view on the Chinese stock market but is optimistic about Chinese tech stocks, citing significant valuation gaps compared to global peers and the potential for further valuation recovery driven by AI [1][7] Group 2: Employment and Economic Conditions - Recent U.S. non-farm payroll data showed a significant slowdown, with only 22,000 jobs added in August, leading to a 4.3% unemployment rate, the highest in nearly four years [3] - Despite the weak employment data, BlackRock's CIO suggests that the labor supply is decreasing due to demographic changes and immigration policy adjustments, complicating the interpretation of employment statistics [3] - Wage growth remains strong, with average hourly earnings increasing by 3.7% year-over-year, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures [3][4] Group 3: AI and Technology Sector - The AI wave is seen as a major driver for large-cap tech stocks, with global enterprises investing approximately $500 billion annually in AI, which represents 0.5% of global GDP [5] - BlackRock believes that the AI-driven revenue and profit growth will exceed expectations, despite concerns about a peak in AI capital expenditure by 2026 [5][6] - The firm emphasizes that traditional mean reversion strategies may not apply in the current macroeconomic environment, as inflation rates are not yet stabilized [5][6] Group 4: Chinese Market and AI Development - Foreign investment interest in China is growing, particularly in the tech sector, as global investors recognize that AI development is not exclusive to the U.S. [7] - Chinese cloud service providers are experiencing significant capital expenditure growth, with Tencent's capital spending expected to increase by 119% year-over-year by Q2 2025 [8] - Morgan Stanley forecasts a surge in demand for AI chips and related technologies in China, with local manufacturers increasing R&D investments to reduce reliance on single suppliers like NVIDIA [8]