温彬：反内卷政策显效，物价有望低位温和回升

Core Insights - The article highlights the gradual improvement in supply-demand relationships due to policies aimed at expanding domestic demand, countering excessive competition, and developing new growth drivers [1][2]. CPI Analysis - In August, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a flat month-on-month change and a year-on-year decline of 0.4%, influenced by falling food and energy prices [4]. - Food prices were weaker than seasonal trends, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5%, below the historical average of 1.5%. Pork prices fell by 0.5%, while egg prices rose by 1.5%, both lower than historical averages [4]. - Energy prices decreased due to lower international oil prices, with transportation fuel prices down by 0.9% month-on-month and 7.1% year-on-year [4]. - Core CPI improved, remaining flat month-on-month and increasing by 0.9% year-on-year, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth [4]. PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed signs of recovery, with a month-on-month change from a decline of 0.2% to flat, and a year-on-year decline of 2.9%, narrowing by 0.7 percentage points [12]. - Prices for production materials improved, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1% and a year-on-year decline of 3.2%, also narrowing by 1.1 percentage points [12]. - Specific industries saw price increases, such as coal processing prices rising by 9.7% month-on-month, indicating a positive trend in domestic market competition [13]. Future Outlook - The outlook suggests a moderate recovery in prices, driven by the continued effects of domestic demand expansion policies and improved market competition [14]. - CPI is expected to reflect a trend of "food and energy prices declining while core inflation rises," with seasonal factors likely to support a decrease in food prices [15]. - PPI may enter a recovery phase, supported by ongoing policy measures against excessive competition and improvements in export structures [15].