Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-09-11 03:03Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting performance of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, particularly in the context of the AI boom, and explores the potential for Hong Kong stocks to catch up after a period of stagnation [1][2]. Group 1: Factors Affecting Hong Kong Stocks - The Hang Seng Technology Index has seen a cumulative increase of 29.51% and the Hang Seng Index has risen by 29.42% since the beginning of the year, with most gains occurring in the first quarter [1]. - The second quarter saw a shift to a consolidation phase for Hong Kong stocks due to high interest rates from the Federal Reserve, geopolitical disturbances, and a slowdown in foreign capital inflow [2]. - Concerns over the profitability of major internet companies due to intensified competition in the "delivery war" and "subsidy war" have also contributed to the market's cautious sentiment [2]. Group 2: Potential of Hong Kong Stocks - Recent non-farm payroll data from the U.S. was significantly below market expectations, raising the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut, which could positively impact Hong Kong stocks due to their sensitivity to international capital flows [3]. - Historical data indicates that during the last Federal Reserve rate cut cycle (August 1, 2019 - March 16, 2020), the Hang Seng Technology Index outperformed gold, A-shares, and U.S. stocks [3][5]. - The trend in the AI market is shifting from hardware to application, with Hong Kong stocks focusing more on software, which may lead to significant growth in the application sector in the coming years [5]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities in Hong Kong Stocks - The Hang Seng Technology Index includes major Chinese AI assets such as Tencent, Alibaba, Xiaomi, and SMIC, which are expected to benefit from the AI market [5]. - As of September 9, the price-to-earnings ratio of the Hang Seng Technology Index was 22.53, which is below the 27.38% percentile of the past decade, indicating a relatively attractive valuation compared to global tech assets like the NASDAQ 100 [5].