平安医疗健康基金经理周思聪：国际噪音难撼中国创新药全球竞争力

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the potential tightening of restrictions by the Trump administration on the introduction of Chinese pharmaceuticals, which has garnered significant market attention. However, the overall impact is expected to be minimal due to existing regulatory trends and the resilience of Chinese innovative drug assets in the global market [1][2]. Group 1: Regulatory Environment - The U.S. government is expected to impose stricter scrutiny on the introduction of overseas products (BD) and raise requirements for clinical trial data, reflecting a continuation of the FDA's ongoing regulatory tightening [1]. - The trend of BD collaboration is a norm for multinational corporations (MNCs), and Chinese innovative drug assets remain highly competitive globally, making it unlikely for political noise to reverse the long-term trend of BD authorization and collaborative development [1][2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - MNCs, as the primary beneficiaries of BD collaborations, possess greater industry and policy influence in the U.S. compared to Biotech firms. Despite potential pressure on U.S. Biotech expectations due to the introduction and acquisition of Chinese innovative drugs, MNCs will continue to actively promote international cooperation based on their strategic and commercial interests [2]. - Chinese innovative pharmaceutical companies are characterized by high efficiency and low cost advantages, attracting global buyers even if U.S. MNCs slow down their introductions due to policy restrictions. This could potentially weaken the U.S.'s leading position in the global pharmaceutical industry in the long run [2]. Group 3: Impact on Innovative Drug Sector - Short-term emotional disturbances are expected but will not alter the long-term industrial logic. The core driver of the recent rise in the innovative drug sector is the industry's entry into a prolonged prosperity cycle, with Chinese innovative drug companies achieving domestic insurance volume and crossing profitability inflection points [2][3]. - The market may shift towards more certain targets as awareness of the innovative drug industry deepens, leading to a potential decline in the previous blind pursuit of small-cap companies while favoring mid-to-large innovative drug firms with established products and high BD certainty [3]. - Short-term adjustments may present good opportunities for positioning, as historical experience shows that emotional pullbacks triggered by sudden events or policy noise often provide favorable accumulation chances [3].