美国8月PPI环比四个月来首次转负，金价续涨迎接美国CPI

Core Viewpoint - The gold ETF (159937) experienced a slight decline of 0.01% amid market news, with a trading volume of 283 million yuan and a turnover rate of 1.00% [1][2]. Market Conditions - The spot gold price is currently fluctuating around $3,635 per ounce, with a recent price of $3,634.99, reflecting a decrease of 0.14%. The highest price reached $3,649.13, while the lowest was $3,633.99 per ounce. COMEX gold futures are priced at $3,674.3 per ounce, down 0.21% [2][3]. - The market is optimistic about gold prices due to favorable conditions, including a recent report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics indicating a year-on-year Producer Price Index (PPI) of 2.6% for August, which was below expectations of 3.3% [3][4]. Federal Reserve Expectations - There is a strong market expectation that the Federal Reserve will announce a 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming policy meeting, with a 100% probability according to the CME FedWatch tool. The probability of a 50 basis point cut has risen to 8%, while the chance of maintaining the current rate is 0% [3][4]. - The upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is anticipated to influence the Federal Reserve's decision, with expectations of a 0.3% month-on-month increase and a 2.9% year-on-year rise for August [3]. Dollar Index and Geopolitical Factors - The U.S. dollar index has declined over 10% this year, influenced by the unexpected drop in PPI and concerns regarding U.S. trade and the independence of the Federal Reserve. This downward trend supports gold prices [4][5]. - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the situation in the Middle East and the lack of resolution in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, are contributing to a stable gold price near record highs [3][5]. Investment Outlook - The largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, has seen an increase in holdings by 0.28 tons, bringing the total to 979.96 tons. Analysts suggest that rising inflation concerns and potential rate cuts could further boost gold prices [5][6]. - Gold ETFs, such as the one mentioned, offer low-cost and diversified trading options, allowing investors to hedge against economic downturns and inflation risks [6].