“美国经济比想象得糟”

Core Viewpoint - The post-COVID economic recovery in the U.S. is facing significant challenges, with increasing evidence of economic slowdown despite previous optimism [1] Labor Market Weakness - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of deterioration, with a downward revision of non-farm employment data by 911,000 jobs, marking the largest adjustment since 2000 [3] - The downward revisions are concentrated in the private sector, particularly in leisure, hospitality, professional services, retail, and manufacturing [3] - Jamie Dimon from JPMorgan highlights that consumer confidence may be impacted, although most consumers still have jobs and continue to spend [4] Consumer Spending Trends - Deloitte forecasts that retail sales growth for the holiday season in 2025-2026 will drop to 2.9%-3.4%, the lowest since the pandemic, indicating weakened consumer momentum [5] - A PwC survey indicates that U.S. households plan to reduce average holiday spending by approximately 5.3%, particularly affecting gift budgets [5] - Credit card debt has reached a historical high, with serious delinquencies at their highest level in over a decade [5] Market Expectations for Rate Cuts - Fitch Ratings predicts that the Federal Reserve will implement two 25 basis point rate cuts in September and December, with three additional cuts expected in 2026 due to concerns over the labor market and consumer demand [7] - Market participants are increasingly betting on rate cuts, with over 90% probability of a total reduction of 75 basis points by the end of December [7] - JPMorgan warns that even if rate cuts occur, it may trigger a sell-off in the stock market, leading to short-term declines despite a 10% rise in the S&P 500 this year [7]