智通财经网·2025-09-11 06:11Core Viewpoint - The report from Everbright Securities indicates a significant decline in antimony production from Polar Gold, with expectations of continued low output in the coming years, impacting cash costs and pricing dynamics in the antimony market [1][3]. Group 1: Antimony Production Trends - Polar Gold's antimony production is projected to drop sharply from 27,100 tons in 2023 to 12,700 tons in 2024, representing a year-on-year decrease of 53% and a reduction in global market share from 26% to 13% [2]. - In the first half of 2024, Polar Gold's antimony production is expected to be 8,616 tons, while the second half is projected to be 4,056 tons, leading to annualized global market shares of 17% and 8% respectively [2]. Group 2: Antimony Pricing Dynamics - Antimony prices experienced a significant increase from January 1 to April 17, 2025, rising from 143,000 CNY/ton to 240,000 CNY/ton, a 68% increase, driven by low inventory and strong demand, particularly from the photovoltaic sector [4]. - Following this peak, prices fell to 183,000 CNY/ton by September 8, 2025, due to high prices leading to negative feedback on demand and a crackdown on smuggling by the government [4]. Group 3: Export and Market Outlook - In 2023, China's antimony exports accounted for 35% of its production, but there was a significant decline in export volumes from May to July 2025, with only 159, 87, and 74 tons exported in those months, respectively [5]. - The Chinese government is expected to gradually restore compliant antimony exports, which could lead to a rebound in domestic prices [5]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Companies to watch in the antimony sector include Huaxi Nonferrous (603301.SH), Hunan Gold (002155.SZ), and Huayu Mining (601020.SH) [6].