Walmart Is Starting to Feel the Effects of Tariffs. Is Its Stock in Trouble?

Core Viewpoint - Walmart's recent earnings report indicates a decline in performance, with adjusted earnings per share falling short of expectations, raising concerns about future price increases and potential challenges for the company and its shareholders [3][5][10]. Financial Performance - Walmart reported fiscal Q2 revenue of $177.4 billion, exceeding analysts' expectations of $176.2 billion, but adjusted earnings per share were $0.68, below the projected $0.74 [5]. - The company's sales increased by approximately 5% year over year, while operating income declined by over 8% to $7.3 billion [8]. Tariff Impact - The impact of tariffs on Walmart's customers has been described as "somewhat muted," but rising costs are expected to continue affecting the company [6][7]. - CEO Doug McMillon acknowledged that costs are increasing weekly as inventory is replenished at post-tariff price levels, which may lead to further price hikes [7]. Stock Valuation and Market Position - Walmart's stock is trading at a high price-to-earnings multiple of 38, compared to the S&P 500 average of 25, indicating elevated investor expectations [9]. - The stock has nearly doubled since 2024, driven by a shift towards safe-haven investments amid macroeconomic concerns [9]. Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term challenges, Walmart is viewed as a solid long-term investment due to its strong fundamentals and growth opportunities in e-commerce and advertising [10][12]. - However, potential price hikes could lead to reduced discretionary spending by customers, impacting the company's performance in the near term [11].