康泰生物陷增收不增利困境：净利润暴跌77%，核心产品全线溃败

Core Viewpoint - 康泰生物 is facing significant challenges, with a sharp decline in net profit and core product sales, raising concerns about its future viability in the competitive vaccine market [1][5]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, 康泰生物 reported revenue of 1.392 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.81%, but net profit fell to 37.53 million yuan, a staggering decline of 77.30%, marking the lowest level since its IPO in 2017 [1]. - The company had to recognize inventory impairment provisions of 93.03 million yuan, nearly 2.44 times its net profit, indicating a pessimistic outlook for its core products [2]. Product Performance - The core products of 康泰生物, including the four-component vaccine, hepatitis B vaccine, 13-valent pneumonia vaccine, and human diploid rabies vaccine, have all seen significant declines in batch approvals in the first half of 2025 [1][2]. - The four-component vaccine experienced an 84% drop in batch approvals due to changes in national immunization strategies, severely impacting its market competitiveness [2]. - The 13-valent pneumonia vaccine's batch approvals decreased by 44.31%, facing intense competition and a declining birth rate in China [2]. - The newly approved human diploid rabies vaccine saw a 100% drop in batch approvals in the first half of 2025, despite initial expectations of strong performance [2][3]. Market Challenges - The overall rabies vaccine market is slowing down, and the human diploid rabies vaccine is positioned in the high-end market with a price of approximately 300 yuan per dose, lacking a competitive edge against lower-priced alternatives [3]. - 康泰生物 is developing new products, including another four-component vaccine and a five-component vaccine, but these are still in early clinical stages and will take time to contribute to revenue [4]. International Expansion - 康泰生物's subsidiary has received approval to market the 13-valent pneumonia vaccine in Indonesia, marking a significant step in its international strategy, although overseas revenue remains minimal, contributing less than 2% to total revenue [4]. Governance and Stock Performance - The company faces governance issues, including a heavy debt burden from a 20 billion yuan convertible bond issued in 2021, which was intended for COVID-19 vaccine development [5]. - 康泰生物's stock price has plummeted nearly 90% from 154.68 yuan per share in August 2020 to approximately 18.6 yuan per share, leading to low conversion willingness for its convertible bonds [5]. - Shareholder dynamics are also concerning, with significant share reductions by the ex-wife of the controlling shareholder, further impacting market confidence [5].