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小摩全球新能源车行业追踪:中美欧渗透率齐升 电池产业链景气度回升
智通财经网·2025-09-11 08:52

Core Insights - The global electric vehicle (EV) market continues to grow, with significant regional differences influenced by policy and subsidy adjustments [1][2] - The penetration rates in key markets such as Europe, the US, and China have shown positive growth, but the competitive landscape among leading automakers and battery companies is evolving [1][4] Regional Market Performance - In August 2025, the combined sales of electric vehicles in Europe (Germany, France, UK, Italy, Spain), the US, and China reached 1.39 million units, marking a year-on-year increase of 10% and a month-on-month increase of 5% [2] - The overall penetration rate for electric vehicles rose to 35%, up 2 percentage points year-on-year and month-on-month [2] - In Europe, the five countries achieved a penetration rate of 27.1%, nearing the historical peak of 27.7% in August 2023, with the UK showing the most significant growth [3][4] Key Market Drivers - The UK's growth in EV penetration is attributed to the "Electric Vehicle Subsidy Program," which provides incentives for small economic models priced below €37,000 [3] - In the US, the penetration rate increased to 12.1%, with pure electric vehicles surpassing 10% for the first time, driven by increased subsidies before the expiration of the $7,500 tax credit [4] - In China, retail sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.08 million units in August, with a penetration rate of 55%, supported by new model launches and price competition [5] Battery and Materials Sector - China's electric vehicle supply chain index rose by 20%, outperforming Japan and South Korea, primarily due to the country's anti-involution policies [6] - The battery materials sector is expected to stabilize or recover prices by 2026, influenced by capacity restrictions and market dynamics [7] Investment Outlook - The company remains optimistic about the prospects of Chinese and Korean automakers and battery leaders, despite anticipated demand weakness in the US market in Q4 due to subsidy reductions [9] - In China, companies like BYD are favored for their overseas business potential, while CATL is recognized for its technological leadership and stable profitability [9]