As the Fed Pivots, These 3 ETFs Are Positioned to Outperform

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is shifting focus from combating inflation to supporting economic growth, creating investment opportunities in certain sectors as interest rates are expected to decline [2][3][13]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - Producer prices unexpectedly dropped in August, indicating a potential end to the Fed's inflation battle [2]. - The U.S. government revised past employment figures downward by 911,000 jobs, prompting a shift in monetary policy [2]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Bank of America projects two 25-basis-point cuts this year, while Goldman Sachs anticipates three cuts in 2025 and two more in 2026, potentially lowering rates to 3.00% to 3.25% [3]. - Certain sectors and strategies are expected to thrive as rates fall, with exchange-traded funds (ETFs) being a clean way to capture these trends [3]. Group 3: Small-Cap Stocks - The iShares Russell 2000 ETF is highlighted as a direct beneficiary of lower rates, as small-cap companies are more sensitive to borrowing costs [5]. - The Russell 2000 has lagged behind the S&P 500 during the Fed's hiking cycle, creating a potential for significant gains as rates decline [5][6]. - The ETF has an expense ratio of 0.19% and a P/E ratio of 17.4, making small-caps appear relatively cheap compared to large-caps [6]. Group 4: Biotech Sector - The SPDR S&P Biotech ETF offers exposure to small- and mid-cap biotechs that are sensitive to capital market conditions [7]. - The biotech industry has faced significant declines during the rate-hiking cycle, with many stocks down 70% to 80% from their peaks [9]. - The ETF has a 0.35% expense ratio and is positioned to benefit from increased merger activity as funding concerns ease with falling rates [8][9]. Group 5: Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) - The Vanguard Real Estate ETF provides income and stability, with REITs benefiting from lower rates as financing costs decrease [10]. - The fund yields 3.76%, significantly higher than the S&P 500's 1.3%, and has an expense ratio of 0.13% [11]. - REITs must distribute 90% of taxable income as dividends, making them an attractive income source as bond yields decline [11]. Group 6: Portfolio Construction - A balanced approach to investing in rate cuts includes the iShares Russell 2000 ETF for small-cap exposure, the SPDR S&P Biotech ETF for speculative upside, and the Vanguard Real Estate ETF for defensive income [12]. - These ETFs provide tools for investors to capitalize on the Fed's pivot towards lower rates and potential economic growth [13].