“牛市”氛围下的两张“面孔”

Group 1 - The article discusses the contrasting dynamics in the Chinese A-share market amidst a global backdrop of long-term bond sell-offs in the US and UK, highlighting a narrative of structural revaluation and a healthy slow bull market [2][3] - The market is characterized by two faces: a broad fundamental driven by macro expectations, policy signals, technological waves, and valuation expansion, and a narrow fundamental that reflects corporate earnings and industry performance yet to fully materialize [3][4] - As of early September, the A-share market experienced a sharp adjustment, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping 2.83% over three days, followed by a rebound where major indices saw gains and trading volumes approached 2 trillion yuan [3][4] Group 2 - Investor sentiment is mixed, questioning whether the market is experiencing a "breather in a bull market" or a decline in upward momentum, with the main board remaining stable while growth sectors face volatility [4][5] - The article notes that despite adjustments in the technology sector, the foundation for overall valuation expansion remains intact, with significant trading volumes and notable gains in small-cap indices and sectors like gold and robotics [5][6] - A defensive yet optimistic investment strategy is highlighted, where investors are taking profits on high positions while maintaining a long-term outlook, indicating a cautious approach amid market fluctuations [6][10] Group 3 - The article emphasizes that the current market rally is underpinned by a dual drive of declining risk premiums and industrial upgrades, with a focus on the sustainability of this trend through fiscal policy continuity and corporate earnings recovery [12][13] - The broad fundamental narrative is gaining prominence, suggesting that Chinese assets are becoming attractive to global financial capital seeking new anchors amid a restructured global monetary order [14][15] - The article also points out that the sell-off in Western long-term bonds indicates a systemic revaluation of core national debts, which could influence investor behavior towards emerging markets like China [15][16] Group 4 - The A-share market has seen significant inflows, with net purchases from southbound funds reaching 351.92 billion yuan, and a notable increase in hedge fund investments in Chinese stocks, indicating heightened risk appetite for emerging markets [16][17] - Despite some positive indicators in the real estate sector, the overall momentum remains insufficient, with mixed macroeconomic data suggesting a need for balance between short-term wealth effects and long-term income growth mechanisms [17][18] - The article concludes that the current structural market dynamics are primarily driven by broad fundamentals, with the need for narrow fundamentals to catch up to sustain the ongoing valuation-driven rally [21][22]