G7国家政府债务高企 债券市场已拉响警报

Group 1: Global Debt Concerns - Major economies are facing a storm in the bond market, with rising concerns over high government debt levels and insufficient measures to address them [1] - Guy Miller, Chief Market Strategist at Zurich Insurance Group, emphasizes the alarming levels of government debt and the lack of adequate solutions [1] Group 2: France - France has risen to the top of the concern list, with political uncertainty hindering efforts to manage debt exceeding 100% of GDP and a budget deficit nearly double the EU limit [3] - The French Court of Auditors warns that if economic growth slows or deficit reduction is relaxed, debt payments could exceed €100 billion (approximately $117 billion) by 2029, up from €59 billion last year [3] - Carol Kong, currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, suggests a bond market disruption may be necessary to compel the coalition government to pass a budget [3] Group 3: United Kingdom - UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer's reshuffle and the upcoming annual budget raise concerns about the country's fiscal control, with long-term borrowing costs reaching the highest level since 1998 [6] - Economists predict that Chancellor Rachel Reeves will need to raise at least £20 billion (approximately $27 billion) in taxes to cover revenue shortfalls due to weak growth and high borrowing costs [6] - The UK has the highest borrowing costs and inflation among G7 economies, making it a target for market anxiety [6] Group 4: United States - The U.S. debt totals nearly $37 trillion, with the Congressional Budget Office estimating that tax cuts and spending bills could add $3.3 trillion over the next decade [9] - Despite having the world's deepest and most liquid capital markets, rising debt levels are leading investors to demand higher compensation for holding government bonds [9] - Recent signs of weak auction demand raise concerns about the sustainability of U.S. debt [9] Group 5: Japan - Japan has one of the highest debt levels globally, with rising interest rates and inflation pushing borrowing costs higher [12] - Weak demand in recent bond auctions exacerbates market distress, and political uncertainty following Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's resignation has driven 30-year bond yields to record highs [12] Group 6: Germany - Debt sustainability is not an immediate concern for Germany, which has the lowest debt-to-GDP ratio among G7 countries, allowing for increased spending to stimulate economic growth [15] - However, the market is attentive to the implications of large-scale stimulus measures, as Germany plans to borrow more through bond sales [15] - The confirmed high infrastructure and defense investments in the 2025 budget total €591 billion, including a €100 billion special fund for defense [15]