Nebius Stock: Next AWS In The Making?

Core Insights - Nebius Group announced a significant deal with Microsoft to supply GPU infrastructure capacity valued at $17.4 billion over five years, leading to a 45% increase in its stock price in after-hours trading [2][3] - The deal is transformative for Nebius, with expected annual revenues exceeding $3.5 billion, a substantial increase from the anticipated $570 million for 2025 [3] - Nebius operates in a new category called "Neoclouds," focusing on high-performance infrastructure specifically for AI tasks, differentiating itself from traditional cloud service providers [2][4] Financial Implications - The contract with Microsoft includes an option for an additional $2 billion in services, indicating strong demand for AI compute capacity [3] - Nebius plans to finance growth through cash flow generated from the contract and secured debt, which will support capital expenditures [4] Competitive Advantages - Nebius has a close partnership with Nvidia, which provides access to advanced GPUs, giving it a competitive edge in a constrained GPU market [6] - The company employs a vertically integrated model, designing its own servers to reduce costs and optimize performance, allowing for faster deployment cycles [7] - Nebius's ability to manage both hardware and software enables fine-tuning of performance for specific AI workloads, providing a long-term competitive advantage [9] Valuation and Growth Prospects - Nebius stock trades at approximately 40 times consensus FY'25 revenue, compared to larger competitor CoreWeave at about 10 times, justified by strong growth prospects [8] - Sales are expected to grow by 160% next year, significantly boosted by the Microsoft deal, indicating robust future performance [8] Financial Health - As of the latest quarter, Nebius has a debt of $1.2 billion and a debt-to-equity ratio of less than 5%, with a cash-to-assets ratio of 32.9%, suggesting a solid balance sheet [9]