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华源证券-医药行业2024年&2025H1总结:下半年业绩有望企稳回升,看好创新产业浪潮持续-250911

Overall Industry Summary - In 2024, 453 pharmaceutical companies achieved revenue of 2.46 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 0.55%, and a net profit of 148.65 billion yuan, down 8.8% [1] - In the first half of 2025, revenue is expected to be 1.22 trillion yuan, a decrease of 2.5%, with a net profit of 102 billion yuan, down 2.1% [1] Innovative Drugs - In the first half of 2025, innovative drug companies achieved revenue of 26.964 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.78%, indicating strong momentum [1] - Domestic innovative drug companies are transitioning from R&D to commercialization, marking a turning point towards profitability [1] - Outbound licensing has become a second growth curve for biotech companies, providing sustainable funding for R&D through high upfront payments [1] Chemical Drugs - In the first half of 2025, chemical drug companies reported revenue of 198.057 billion yuan, a decline of 3.83%, with a net profit of 22.139 billion yuan, down 0.11% [1] - Traditional generic-to-innovative drug companies performed well, with notable examples including Hengrui Medicine and Haizheng [1] - The chemical drug sector is expected to further differentiate, with innovative companies likely to benefit in the medium to long term [1] Medical Devices - In the first half of 2025, medical device companies achieved revenue of 106.82 billion yuan, down 5.32%, and a net profit of 17.58 billion yuan, down 18.07% [2] - The performance of high-value consumables is driven by factors such as inventory levels and policy impacts, suggesting potential turning points and innovation opportunities [2] Biological Products - Blood products in 2024 generated revenue of 24.18 billion yuan, down 1.4%, with a net profit of 6.23 billion yuan, up 14.47% [2] - Vaccine companies faced significant declines, with 2024 revenue of 40.77 billion yuan, down 45.3%, and a net profit of 3.2 billion yuan, down 72% [2] Traditional Chinese Medicine - In the first half of 2025, traditional Chinese medicine companies reported revenue of 174.376 billion yuan, down 4.57%, with a net profit of 22.479 billion yuan, up 0.70% [3] - The sector is under pressure due to stricter regulations and weak consumer demand, but there are opportunities for leading OTC brands and innovative companies [3] Raw Materials - In the first half of 2025, raw material drug companies achieved revenue of 47.86 billion yuan, down 2.90%, with a net profit of 8.1 billion yuan, up 20.61% [3] - High-performing segments include peptides and vitamin E/A, with companies like Nuotai Bio and New Hecheng showing strong results [3] Pharmaceutical Commerce - In the first half of 2025, pharmaceutical commerce companies reported revenue of 517.86 billion yuan, flat year-on-year, with a net profit of 12.09 billion yuan, up 7.6% [4] - Offline pharmacies achieved revenue of 57.77 billion yuan, up 0.1%, and a net profit of 2.55 billion yuan, up 0.9% [4] Medical Services - In the first half of 2025, medical service companies reported revenue of 36.36 billion yuan, down 4.93%, with a net profit of 2.352 billion yuan, down 11.17% [5] - The performance of eye care companies showed growth, with revenue of 16.102 billion yuan, up 6.75% [5] CXO & Research Services - In the first half of 2025, the CXO and research services sector achieved revenue of 50.64 billion yuan, up 13.05%, with a net profit of 11.91 billion yuan, up 60.6% [6] - The sector continues to show improvement, with leading CXO companies demonstrating strong resilience and growth [6]