Core CPI Steady, Jobless Claims Jump; But Big Fed Rate Cut Unlikely (Live Coverage)

Economic Indicators - Today's consumer price index (CPI) report is crucial for Federal Reserve's future rate cut projections, with a cooler CPI potentially leading to more aggressive rate cuts [1] - Economists forecast a 0.3% monthly increase for both overall CPI and core CPI, with headline inflation expected to rise to 2.9% from 2.7% and core CPI inflation holding at 3.1% [3] - Initial jobless claims are expected to dip to 234,000, down from 237,000 the previous week, indicating modest levels historically [4] Market Reactions - S&P 500 futures are pointing modestly higher ahead of the CPI data, following a record closing high for the index [2] - The S&P 500 has climbed 11.1% year-to-date and surged 31.1% from its 52-week low on April 8 [6] Federal Reserve Outlook - Markets are pricing in an 8% chance of a 50-basis-point rate cut next Wednesday, with a quarter-point cut considered certain [5] - There is a 77% probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point rate cut by the end of the October 29 Fed meeting, with odds of 75 basis points in rate cuts over the final three meetings of the year rising to 69% from 46% [5] Company Performance - Oracle's stock continues to rise due to a significant increase in data-center revenue backlog driven by AI, surprising analysts [2] - Nvidia has gained further traction following a strong performance in the previous session, indicating robust interest in AI-related stocks [2]