September Fed rate cut a done deal, at least one more to follow by year-end: Reuters poll

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points on September 17, with most economists anticipating one further cut next quarter due to labor market softness overshadowing inflation risks [1][2] - Markets have fully priced in a September cut and now expect three reductions this year, up from two just weeks ago, indicating a shift in economic outlook [2] - A significant majority of economists predict a 25 basis point cut to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first reduction of the year [2][3] Group 2 - Economists have noted a persistent slowdown in labor demand, suggesting that the Fed should ease policy to support the labor market despite current inflation levels [3] - There is potential for dissent among Fed board members regarding the size of the rate cut, with some analysts suggesting a larger cut or holding rates steady [4][5] - A majority of economists expect a 50 basis point cut by the end of 2025, with a notable increase in those predicting 75 basis points cuts by year-end [5] Group 3 - Over 60% of economists believe that surging inflation or a combination of inflation with rising unemployment is more likely in the coming year [6]