Elliott Wave: Dollar At Risk Ahead Of CPI And Fed Cut

Core Insights - The dollar is currently trapped in a range, with a potential for a downward breach below July lows, indicating a possible ending diagonal pattern [1] - Upcoming US CPI data is crucial, as it may influence market expectations regarding interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][3] - A significant drop in crude oil prices could lead to a flat or softened inflation reading, impacting the dollar's performance [3] Economic Indicators - US inflation is expected to rise to 2.9% from 2.7%, but a softer reading could trigger a sell-off in the dollar [3] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve may cut rates, with speculation on the extent of the cuts [2] Technical Analysis - The Elliott Wave analysis suggests that the dollar's rise from July lows is corrective, indicating potential further weakness [4] - A target below 96 is indicated for wave C of wave five, but caution is advised as ending diagonals can signal trend reversals [4] Historical Context - A comparison is made to September 2024, where the dollar initially fell before stabilizing and recovering after a rate cut, suggesting a possible similar scenario may unfold [6]