US Inflation Rises More Than Expected M/M, ECB Holds Rates Amid Revised Outlook

Economic Indicators - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August increased by 0.4% month-over-month, surpassing the expected 0.3% and up from July's 0.2% [2][3] - Year-over-year, the headline CPI was reported at 2.9%, meeting expectations and showing a slight increase from the previous 2.7% [2] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, remained steady at 0.3% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year, consistent with forecasts [3] European Central Bank (ECB) Updates - The ECB decided to maintain its key interest rates, with the Deposit Facility Rate at 2.00%, the Main Refinancing Rate at 2.15%, and the Marginal Lending Facility at 2.40% [4] - The ECB raised its inflation outlook for 2025 and 2026 while slightly lowering it for 2027, indicating a more persistent inflationary environment [5] - The GDP growth forecast for the Eurozone in 2025 was revised upwards to 1.2% from 0.9%, while the 2026 forecast was trimmed to 1.0% from 1.1% [5] Company Performance - Kroger reported second-quarter 2025 earnings with adjusted EPS of $1.04, exceeding the estimated $1.00, despite slightly missing revenue expectations with sales of $33.98 billion [6][7] - Identical-store sales excluding fuel grew by 3.4%, significantly above the estimated 2.8% [7] - Kroger narrowed its full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $4.70 to $4.80, raising the lower end of its forecast [7] Oil Market Insights - OPEC maintained its forecasts for global oil demand growth at 1.29 million barrels per day (bpd) for 2025 and 1.38 million bpd for 2026 [10] - Crude output averaged 42.40 million bpd in August, an increase of 509,000 bpd from July, following an OPEC+ production hike [11]